[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
14N21W TO 06N22W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN ITS IMMEDIATE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 12N. HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
YET. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE REMAINS
ENGULFED BY DRY AIR N OF 12N WHICH MAY BE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N54W TO INLAND OVER SURINAME AND
THEN NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 0S56W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE NORTHERN WAVE AXIS IS
EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE WHERE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W MOVING W NEAR 5 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY
EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. THESE SHOWERS EXTEND TO PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
10N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 08N24W
TO 04N40W 06N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
GULF THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY
TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS WITHIN 70 NM SOUTH OF
THE COASTLINES. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL N-NWLY FLOW WITHIN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE
TO THE NW GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
N OF 24N W OF 95W. REMNANT CONVECTION FROM A SURFACE TROUGH LIES
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N EAST OF 93W. A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE GULF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W.
OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS
RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. WITHIN 48 HOURS RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND A NEW HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS NE OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN....EASTERN AND PART OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE REMAINDER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AN
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS FROM NE OF HAITI SW TO JUST
OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN W OF A LINE FROM
18N71W TO 10N79W WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EAST OF THAT LINE WHICH COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW
MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. THESE
SHOWERS EXTEND TO PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA MOSTLY ASSOCIATED TO
THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH WHICH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA
RICA TO COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN HAITI AND RAINSHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
PUERTO RICO IS CARRYING SOME MOISTURE WITH IT WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W
AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY AND EXIT HAITI EARLY ON MONDAY.
AS THIS WAVE COUPLES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW OVER THE
ISLAND...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N W OF 78W
ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E OF THIS
TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 34N47W. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 23N66W TO 15N67W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOP WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW
MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND LA HISPANIOLA. OTHER THAN
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 59W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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