[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N19W TO
07N19W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE MOISTURE S OF
12N AND A MUCH DRIER ENVIRONMENT N OF 12N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL
TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THIS WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY DRY AIR
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N51W TO INLAND OVER FRENCH GUIANA
AND THEN NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DEEP MOISTURE NE OF THE WAVE
AXIS N OF 5N COINCIDING WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AXIS N OF 6N COINCIDING WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE MOISTURE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG FROM 23N65W TO 15N66W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE AXIS IS
EMBEDDED IN AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST N OF THE WAVE
AXIS...ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 80 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF
PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
11N21W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N22W TO 04N38W 06N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS AND 200 NM S OF IT BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER MOST OF THE
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL
THE WAY TO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 35N81W
WHICH TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHICH ALSO EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COASTLINE. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL N-NWLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS
ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE TO THE NW GULF WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 95W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 0300 UTC
EXTENDS FROM 23N89W TO 16N91W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W BEING
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW HAS
BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AN UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW EXTENDS
FROM N OF LA HISPANIOLA SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DRY STABLE AIR IS ACROSS MOST
OF THE BASIN W OF A LINE FROM 17N72W TO 11N80W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE E CARIBBEAN UPPER
RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
WHICH COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM 17N72W TO 11N80W. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
18N66W TO 15N66W. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-
20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. WITHIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS THE
WAVE WILL COME OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WILL
CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LA
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAINSHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT ARE PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER TO LA HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL
ELONGATED LOW OVER THE ISLAND WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AND WILL COUPLE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE W ATLC...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N W OF 77W
ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E OF THIS
TROUGH. OVER THE NORTHERN E ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
32N32W TO 28N33W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
A DRY ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 64W-68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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