[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N35W TO 10N33W TO 07N33W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 10N33W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 24N71W TO 15N73W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE
HAS LEFT BEHIND A MID-LEVEL CENTER AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR
22N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
67W-70W MOSTLY DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSISTS OVER HAITI.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
15N20W TO 10N33W TO 07N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OVER N FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 80W-
83W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N101W PRODUCING NE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN
THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA DUE
TO THE COLD FRONT... AND FOR TROPICAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER
W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA FROM THE
BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS
OVER HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE ...THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG
09N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 74W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 80W...WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE
TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT WITH SHOWERS ...AND FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF
BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
REFORM AGAIN OVER HISPANIOLA TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF CUBA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND MORE CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net