[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N34W TO 11N32W TO 08N31W MOVING W
AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED
AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 11N32W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 24N70W
TO 14N71W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE GOES OVER HISPANIOLA
AND IS NOW W OF A MID-LEVEL CENTER AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR
21N66W. THE DYNAMICS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-69W....WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
71W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
14N20W TO 11N32W TO 05N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT
02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 12W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              A
1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. PREFRONTAL
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA
FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 80W-83W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR
32N101W PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-
22N BETWEEN 89W-92W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT... AND FOR
TROPICAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND S FLORIDA FROM THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
CONVECTION OVER HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER MOST OF
CUBA AS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED. SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NICARAGUA TO
BELIZE. ELSEWHERE... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA
TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 09N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
E HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W...WHILE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 10-15 KT...AND
FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF BELIZE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING AND INSTABLITY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE
ISLAND AND IS ANOTHER SOURCE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO REFORM AGAIN TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W
TO E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF CUBA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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