[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 20W/21W
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. A MID LEVEL SWIRL IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N33W
TO 5N41W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W
FROM 12N-21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN
AREA VOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS SHOW A SLIGHT
CURVATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N21W TO 12N26W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N32W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N41W AND CONTINUES INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-47W AND
S OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 88W EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W AND CONTINUES TO 24N94W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
NE MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE W TIP OF CUBA THEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 25N83W ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 88W TO
OVER FLORIDA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO
INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF LINE FROM 25N88W
TO S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE TROUGH OVER CUBA WILL MOVE W ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW GULF
LATE TODAY THEN DRIFT W TOWARD THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH
FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N GULF WILL
DRIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE FRI IN PHASE WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY FORM IN
THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
ANCHORED OVER BELIZE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE
ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER
LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
THE AREA W OF 82W IS DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 18N82W ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 20N86W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 75W AND W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N75W IN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N78W THEN ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN TODAY. THE N SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW GULF
LATE TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THU THEN START TO INCREASE AGAIN FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE ISLAND FRI AND
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE W TIP OF CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING TO 30N80W
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N75W ALONG 26N77W TO
BEYOND 32N79W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 24N73W CROSSING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-71W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REALIGN E TO W ALONG 35N THROUGH SAT.
THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE
THU FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FRI THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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