[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE
OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A MID LEVEL SWIRL IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N33W
TO 5N39W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W/60W FROM
12N-21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA VOID OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF 54W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE CARIBBEAN IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH
AT 03/0300 UTC THAT HAS BEEN DRAWN NW IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
RIDGE/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO/W ATLC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N20W TO 10N25W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N30W TO 10N34W. THE ITCZ
RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N39W AND CONTINUES ALONG
6N45W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S
OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 45W-49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 22N W OF 86W EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N91W TO
24N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-25N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA NEAR HAVANA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N
BETWEEN 86W-93W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
N GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NW AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP AND SHIFT N AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES. THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THEN W-NW ACROSS THE W GULF WED
THROUGH FRI. THE SURFACE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY THE N PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE
GULF TONIGHT AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS
ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF N BELIZE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA/THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF
HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-73W. THE AREA W OF 80W IS
DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A TROPICAL WAVE...
IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 19N84W ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE...IS
ALSO BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS ALONG 85W S OF 17N TO
OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 78W AND S OF 18N W OF 82W TO INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE N SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
WED. THE S SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT AND WED. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FRI
AND SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN SAT.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND TO
16N. CURRENTLY THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DIMINISHING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE
ISLAND FRI AND SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA NEAR HAVANA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC
NEAR 25N80W AND CONTINUES N TO 30N79W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. A CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N72W CROSSING THE GREATER ANTILLES
FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N
TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
25N61W ALONG 28N65W TO 32N66W BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REALIGN E TO W ALONG 35N TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT. THE N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE W ACROSS SW ATLC WED THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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