[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA COAST AFRICA NEAR 10N15W
TO 6N18W IN THE EASTERN ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W TO
1N30W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO N BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-1S BETWEEN
22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN SW GULF NEAR 28N92W.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 20 KT IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF EAST OF
90W S OF 28N. LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND NW GULF W OF 90W N OF 23N. IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-20 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ASSOCIATED TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT COVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE PORTIONS OF
THE GULF. RAIN SHOWERS AND HAZE HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE
COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RADAR DATA SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE GULF ENJOYS CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 KT WILL
PERSIST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO
20N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. HAZE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER
WESTERN CUBA...THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
HONDURAS COAST. TRADE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WEST OF JAMAICA AND N OF 15N. STRONGER EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N WITH A
MAXIMUM OF 25 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...A BROAD RIDGE COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BUILD
ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
OVER THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N72W
THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR
23N81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES LIES WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
FRONT AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.A AS WELL THE WEST ATLC. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 30N35W...EXTENDS TO THE LOW NEAR
26N36W THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N39W 20N45W 21N52W. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 25N36W TO 21N38W 18N42W TO 17N49W.
THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED NEAR 26N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THE
LOW IS FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 34W-42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NW OF
THE LOW PRESSURE N OF 28N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. AN OUTBREAK OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-30N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR






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