[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 31 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO
7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 1N30W TO 0N40W TO N
BRAZIL NEAR 0N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-1S BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W 20N88W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N94W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ARE GOING AROUND THE HIGH WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH A 70-110 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO S LOUISIANA IN 12 HOURS...
AND BE WELL N OF THE AREA IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N88W TO N GUATEMALA AT 18N90W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN S OF THE FRONT FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
BELIZE IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA
AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N50W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W TO 22N40W TO 19N45W. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER W FROM 32N34W TO 25N40W TO
22N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
33W-38W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S PORTUGAL AT 38N9W. AN
OUTBREAK OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 13N-27N E
OF 39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE E
ATLANTIC FRONTS. EXPECT ALL FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 1008 MB LOW TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N41W WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS NW
OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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