[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 5W...
TO 4N12W AND 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO 1N26W 1N36W
AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 10W AND 11W...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S
BETWEEN 32W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 25N85W TO 28N88W BEYOND
32N86W IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND REACHING 28N84W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT
ARE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 25N70W 26N76W 27N80W 27N82W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF 22N85W 26N89W 30N88W.

FAIR SKIES COVER FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD.
THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REACHING AND/OR ARE STARTING TO REACH
6 STATUTE MILES AND LOWER IN FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA AND LAKELAND.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 30N. THE JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
METROPOLITAN AREA IS STARTING TO GIVE REPORTS OF LOW CEILINGS...
LOW OR LOWERING VISIBILITIES...MIST AND FOG. LOW CEILINGS...
DRIZZLE...LOW VISIBILITIES AND MIST/DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MARY ESTHER WESTWARD. VISIBILITIES
AT 1 MILE AND LOWER WITH FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL
AREAS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PLAINS. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE
AREA OF OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. HAZE IS PUTTING THE VISIBILITY NEAR
5 STATUTE MILES NEAR 27N90W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. HAZE IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR EDINBURG
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES WITH MIST ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
SITES THAT ARE FROM 27N TO 28N IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTERIOR OF
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
A 48 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N94W 25N99W. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL OBSERVED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 91W. ALSO EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN VENEZUELA NEAR
8N67W TO 12N68W 15N68W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...IN BROKEN LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 72W...
TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 72W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 74W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N83W IN COSTA RICA TO 7N89W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
TO THE WEST OF 74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST TO START IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND 10 TO 14 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF IMPORTANCE
CONSISTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
25N56W AND 21N53W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N43W TO 28N50W AND 25N57W. A SHEAR LINE BEGINS NEAR 25N57W
AND IT CONTINUES TO 23N65W AND 20N72W NEAR CUBA. A SECOND COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE. IT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N60W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA AND REACHING 28N84W...
IN THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF 25N70W 26N76W 27N80W 27N82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 24N50W 20N60W...AND
WESTWARD TO THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN
70W AND 80W. THIS AREA COVERS CUBA  AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 25N35W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N28W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 47W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER TO 30N22W 26N34W 23N48W AND 22N63W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N51W
TO 25.5N70W AND 27.5N80W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
9 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT TO 38W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 63W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 75W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO 27N
TO THE EAST OF 62W. A SECOND AREA OF IMPORTANCE CONSISTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 41W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
TO THE EAST OF 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 61W.
THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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