[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N13W AND 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W TO 24W/25W
ABOUT 30 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...TO 1N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE
EAST OF 20W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1S TO 1N
BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 28N88W BEYOND 32N86W IN
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF
90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N78W...
ABOUT 30 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N73W 28N80W
30N94W. IT HAS BEEN RAINING IN ORLANDO AND IN FORT PIERCE...
IN JACKSONVILLE AND IN SAINT AUGUSTINE...IN FLORIDA...DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THE VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO REACH 6 STATUTE MILES AND
LOWER FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FROM CRESTVIEW AND VALPARAISO
TO MOBILE ALABAMA...AND IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BECOME LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG FROM
THE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT IN MOBILE ALABAMA TO PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN VENEZUELA NEAR
8N67W TO 14N68W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

RAINSHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WERE REACHING EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY 27 JANUARY.
MORE SUCH PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NOW WITH THE ONSHORE WIND
FLOW REACHING THE COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...
IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
TO THE EAST OF 72W...TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 72W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W IN COSTA RICA TO 7N89W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST
OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
GALE WARNING THAT IS FORECAST TO START IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
EXPECT 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF IMPORTANCE
HAS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO
25N56W AND 21N53W. ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO
30N49W. THE FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 30N49W TO 27N53W AND 25N57W.
A SHEAR LINE BEGINS NEAR 25N57W AND IT CONTINUES TO 23N65W AND
21N72W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE. IT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
28N60W 27N70W...TO 28N78W...ABOUT 30 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N73W 28N80W 30N94W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N41W 25N50W 20N61W...AND WESTWARD TO THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN NORTHWESTERN HAITI...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 26N37W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N29W.
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1031 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N22W TO 28N31W TO 25N44W
22N57W AND 21N65W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT 31N55W TO
28N81W. N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 40W SW TO W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. S OF 23N W OF 70W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
9 FT EXPOSED WATERS. ELSEWHERE N OF 22N E 55W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED SWELL. A SECOND AREA IS
S OF 22N E OF 62W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED N AND E SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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