[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N27W 1N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 38W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 3N12W TO 1N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVER THE S GULF TO 24N92W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W
ATLC AND THE FAR NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE CONTINUING OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR BILOXI.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF S OF 25N. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THERE
IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N E OF 84W INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF TUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST TUE EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED AND MOVE
SE OF THE GULF THU LATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 19N W OF 84W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 21N70W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 12N66W OFF THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/90 OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL BUT
THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
72W-85W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE OFF COLOMBIA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 50W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC
ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA ALONG 30N75W TO ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST S OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N
OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 27N57W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N
OF THE FRONT TO 25N W OF 74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N70W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE
ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N24W GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG 27N LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE MON. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE NW WATERS
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST
WED NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA
LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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