[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING ALONG 4N14W TO 2N18W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM ACROSS
THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-7W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO OVER THE S GULF TO 26N90W WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF
S OF 25N. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THERE IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF W
CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E
GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
29N87W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AND SPREADING
E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MIDDAY WED AND
MOVE SE OF THE GULF THU AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 18N W OF 83W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER
THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SW
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
20N68W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 13N66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W-68W. ALTHOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALL BUT THE GULF OF HONDURAS
HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING JAMAICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN SUN NIGHT
INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS SOME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/2100 UTC EXTENDS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 73W-77W. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS AT 26/2100 UTC FROM 32N67W ALONG 29N71W TO 27N77W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING
ALONG 29N50W TO 27N59W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N69W
THEN DISSIPATES THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 22N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 29N28W
GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL ALONG 27N LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE MON. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE NW ATLC IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES COAST WED
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA LATE THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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