[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W AND
EXTENDS TO 5N17W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 4N19W 2N28W TO 1N39W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR EAST OF 16W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 85 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
26W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-20 KT OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE S AND SE PORTIONS
OF THE GULF. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY REMNANTS OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND A HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
NICARAGUA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT SPREAD OVER THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THESE WINDS FROM THE NE ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE S AND NW CARIBBEAN...FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AS WELL
AS N OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE WEST ATLC
EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N77W TO 19N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM E
OF THE FRONT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL DISPLACE
NE OF THE AREA AND TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL DOMINATE OVER THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E CONUS AND EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N63W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N69W 23N73W TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEST OF IT ALL THE WAY
TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC N OF 19N ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH
LOCATED CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 33N24W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE COVER THIS REGION PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER. FROM 11N-17N EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND ENHANCED BY WIND
CONFLUENCE ALOFT. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM 30N57W TO
25N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR








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