[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE GUINEA AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W
AND EXTENDS FROM 9N16W 5N17W 3N18W 2N21W INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG FROM 2N22W 1N30W 1N38W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR
EAST OF 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5-20 KT
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVER
THE E AND S OF THE GULF. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE W GULF. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 5-20 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT
SPREAD OVER THE REGION DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KT COVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
WEST OF JAMAICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE NE TRADE WINDS
ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRADE WINDS
OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N
OF 31N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 23/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N64W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N68W 25N72W TO
THE EAST COAST OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ALL THE
WAY TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC N OF 17N ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 34N25W. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE COVER THIS REGION PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER. FROM 10N-17N EAST OF 24W...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AND ENHANCED BY WINDS CONFLUENCE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM
30N58W TO 25N69W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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