[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL LIBERIA INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 6N11W 5N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT
5N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W EQ24W 2S35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 17W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT IN
THE FAR NE CORNER. A COOLER AIRMASS STILL REMAINS ACROSS THE
BASIN. HOWEVER...OVERCAST SKIES COVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
BASIN WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.
ALOFT...WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS COVER THE AREA AROUND THE BASE OF A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. DRY AIR
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE GULF COAST STATES WITH SOME
MODERATE MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN
IS HELPING PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTH OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N82W 16N86W. A FEW
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN 10-15 KT TRADEWIND FLOW. SOME STRONGER WINDS REACHING 20
KT ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN LIKELY PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND THE WEST
ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N64W AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W AND INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING UP TO 400 NM NW OF THE
AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
36N41W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N36W...WHICH IS DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
18N42W IS SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 41W-45W...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N-14N BETWEEN 31W-47W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 28N47W TO 17N49W DEPICTING AN AREA
OF BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE. NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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