[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR
4N7W TO 3N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N15W TO 3N26W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND 31W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN
23W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT.
STRONGER WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NE OF THE GULF EAST OF 90W NORTH OF
25N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDINESS COVERS THE GULF
SOUTH OF 28N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION
BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
AS INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXCEPT FOR A REDUCTION
IN WIND SPEED IN THE NE GULF EXPECT LITTLE CHANGES WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ABOVE SPECIFIED
REGION PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...STRONGER
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT DOMINATE. OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS TRANSITIONED TO
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
21N79W TO 19N83W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE WEST AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
SCHEME INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE COAST OF
ECUADOR. WITHIN 24 HOURS...EXCEPT BY THE DISSIPATION OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WEST ATLC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 30N68W 26N71W
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. BROKEN SKIES ARE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE COLD FRONT
N OF 28N WHERE WIND BLOWS FROM THE NE AT 20-30 KT. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH REMNANT FROM A LOW EXTENDS ALONG
28N43W 23N45W 19N45W WITH NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
TO IT. IN THE EAST ATLC...WEAK RIDGING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
32N37W IS TO THE N OF 20N. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 14N TO
21W BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N42W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 26N EAST OF 40W BEING SUPPORTED BY THE
CONTINUATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR




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