[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF S LIBERIA AT 5N8W
TO 2N11W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 2N11W TO 1N15W TO 4N25W TO 1N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 8W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N68W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE. 15-20 KT
N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
RETURN FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO GET A SECONDARY
PUSH OF COLD AIR AND PROCEED TO MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A GALE IN 24 HOURS IN THE SW
GULF W OF FRONT S OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N74W. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...TO
INCLUDE JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N68W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 996 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE AREA...N OF
26N BETWEEN 35W-41W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N38W TO 27N37W TO 18N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 21N. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N16W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N42W SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW TO
MOVE S TO 28N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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