[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 5N8W CONTINUING ALONG 4N19W TO 3N25W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 8W-14W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF AT
15/0900 UTC ENTERING NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER CONTINUING
ALONG 26N92W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR VERA CRUZ. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE W GULF TO INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA AND TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER ILLINOIS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BLOCKING THE FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN SURFACE FLOW E OF THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-87W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY
FRONT WILL START TO MOVE TODAY AND SWEEP THROUGH THE SE GULF BY
LATE THU. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS W OF FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER SW GULF EARLY WED THROUGH THU
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N81W DOMINATING THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 62W-87W. THE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE
THU STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY LATE FRI BEFORE
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
FROM FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N70W. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES W OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W GIVING THE W ATLC FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W AND A 996 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 31N43W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW WITH A
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING
ALONG 26N39W TO 20N44W THEN DISSIPATES TO 18N49W. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 21N41W TO 26N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 32W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-44W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E
OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THU AND EARLY FRI FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ENE THROUGH FRI. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI THEN STALL FROM 32N64W TO E
CUBA LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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