[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W
TO 4N30W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 27W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE
HIGH ALONG 30N TO S MISSISSIPPI. 25 KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT.
15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH RETURN
FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
TAMPICO MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY PF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N78W. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE W ATLANTIC
HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN...S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING ALL DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 992 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN
50W-55W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N31W TO 23N40W TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
E OF 30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N51W SUPPORTING THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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