[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO
5N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N11W TO 4N26W 3N30W 4N40W 5N43W
AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF 4N27W 4N34W 4N39W 5N42W 6N46W...
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SAME 4N27W 6N46W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN
TEXAS...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM 50 TO 75 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE TEXAS COAST.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...HAZE...LIGHT RAIN...
AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS FROM
TEXAS TO LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL STATIONS BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 30N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A COLD FRONT
THAT IS INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE
WEST OF 95W FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 71W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 35W AND 73W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 71W
AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

REMNANT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTH
OF 15N60W 15N70W 16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC
WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH IN CURACAO...AND 0.09 OF AN INCH IN
GUADELOUPE...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 4N80W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 8N86W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST FROM 2N TO 5N...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N TO
THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF
15N TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE MONA PASSAGE
IS 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE NORTH
OF 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W INCLUDING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N77W...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
22N53W TO 17N59W TO 11N60W NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 35W AND 71W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A SLOWLY-EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W
TO 26N37W AND 21N44W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N44W
TO 19N50W. REMNANT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 25N34W 19N40W 14N50W 11N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF 15N60W 15N70W
16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
30W AND 36W. THE COLD FRONT IS RELATED TO THE AREA OF GALE-FORCE
WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N35W 25N28W BEYOND 32N27W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 18N58W 26N68W 27N67W...
TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N76W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO 28N23W 21N30W TO 12N36W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN
50W AND 55W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 20 TO 31 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 38W AND
50W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 12 TO 20 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 60W. EXPECT 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 68W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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