[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 3N38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG
44W/45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 93W. THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN
ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N81W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO
1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N86W. THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TOWARD NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS/
SOUTHERN BELIZE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
29N91W 24N94W 18N94W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 26N80W AT THE FLORIDA
COAST BEYOND 32N70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 23N98W TO 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...AND THE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP2...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
27N83W 25N86W 21N88W COLD FRONT...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 93W
FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AROUND THAT TIME WITH 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 80W AND
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND FROM FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS/SOUTHERN
BELIZE TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH AND A 700 MB
TROUGH THAT RUN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWESTERN
HONDURAS...TO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 4N77W ALONG
THE COLOMBIA COAST...TO 7N82W TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BEYOND 6N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N TO THE
EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE WATER...IN THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N
TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 81W. EXPECT
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 75W
AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N65W...ABOUT 200 NM TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 30N TO THE
BETWEEN 30W AND 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W
AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N80W AT THE CUBA COAST TO 30N70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO
27N31W AND 23N33W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N34W AND 25N38W. THE FRONT IS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT FROM 25N38W TO 24N43W AND 25N48W. A SECOND COLD
FRONT...THAT IS ABOUT 250 TO 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST...IS
FOLLOWING THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N39W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N30W 25N40W 25N45W
26N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...TO 28N64W AND 27N79W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N30W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS PASSES THROUGH 23N14W IN THE
WESTERN SAHARA...TO 20N21W TO 9N25W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 57W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST
OF 45W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net