[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N20W.
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 4N20W TO
3N39W TO EQ44W TO BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 3N-2S BETWEEN 25W-35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 27N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. W OF THE COLD
FRONT...15-25 NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO W OF THE COLD FRONT...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 92W-94W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-95W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW AND MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LIGHTEST
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA E OF 96W. MORE SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 78W-82W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
HOWEVER FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE
PRECIPITATION ADVECTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO N
FLORIDA AT 29N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N56W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 26N40W TO
25N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N
OF 29N BETWEEN 23W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND FROM 32N67W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA









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