[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Jan 5 23:20:22 CST 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 060520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W
AND 3N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM
3N18W TO 1N21W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 21W AND 37W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...REACHING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THIS WIND FLOW PATTERN EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N91W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N95W...CONTINUING TO 20N92W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 26N
BETWEEN 93W AND 94W GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD A BIT WITH
TIME...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N91W.

BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 95W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS IN SOME OF THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY NEAR VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 28N91W 25N94W 19N92W SURFACE TROUGH...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH...AND 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 83W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 7N63W TO 15N62W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF 73W AND FROM FROM 14N
TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING IN BELIZE...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE GFS MODEL GIVES THE HINT OF AN 850 MB LEVEL TROUGH WITH
A DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW PATTERN AT 700 MB...IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 6N84W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
WATER...IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W FROM THE BORDER
OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W...FOR NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS RANGING FROM
25 TO 35 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET
FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W...20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN
75W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 20W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N38W TO
30N43W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 30N43W 29N50W 28N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
NEAR 28N60W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N72W AND 28N79W...JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 32N TO THE WEST
OF 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N IN
FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N62W 26N50W 25N40W BEYOND
32N23W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N24W TO 27N40W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N53W...TO 26N70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N14W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 18N17W ALONG THE
COAST OF MAURITANIA TO 12N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT SOLELY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE EAST OF 31N55W 26N40W 20N54W...20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 55W...
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 62W...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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