[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 05 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 3N17W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 3N17W TO EQ23W
TO EQ30W TO BRAZIL AT 3S43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 14W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NE
MEXICO NEAR 25N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N92W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COASTS IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM 22N-26N W OF FRONT. THIS GALE IS FORECAST TO END SHORTLY AT
0000 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN
92W-95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO
DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 10.5N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THIS
GALE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC SUNDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS WITH
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND
FROM N NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS HOWEVER FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE PRECIPITATION ADVECTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W TO
30N50W TO 28N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 28N70W TO N OF
THE BAHAMAS AT 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N52W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LEADING PORTION OF THE FRONT TO MOVE
SE OVER THE E ATLANTIC... WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC RETROGRADES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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