[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF LIBERIA AT 5N8W TO 5N11W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N11W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 6N25W 2N35W EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BISECT THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO SE MEXICO ALONG
22N93W 18N94W 21N100W. OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD
MAINLY WEST OF THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST...AND WITHIN 10 NM SE
OF THE AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO OBSERVED WEST OF THE
FRONT S OF 22N. THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE GULF...CARIBBEAN...AND
WEST ATLC. IT IS THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE WHICH IS PREVENTING
THE FRONT FROM PUSHING SE THROUGH THE BASIN. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY...WHILE
THE NORTHERN PORTION MAY DRIFT SLOWLY SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE REACHING 25
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HONDURAS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N61W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST ATLC.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO THE
WEST ATLC AND NORTH OF THE RIDGE SUPPORTING SOME OVERCAST SKIES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA AND NORTH OF
30N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH CONNECTS TO THE STATIONARY FRONT
NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE WEST ATLC. THE COLD FRONT
SKIMS 30N BETWEEN 50W-62W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO EAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 10N35W WHERE IT THEN CONTINUES
WESTWARD ALONG 10N. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AS WELL
AS OVERCAST SKIES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING
DOMINATES THE EAST ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1041 MB HIGH OVER
FRANCE. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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