[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031714
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN WEST COAST
NEAR 06N10W TO 08N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 08N16W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 06N25W TO 01N35W TO THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST AT 01S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES ALONG AND UP
TO 4 DEGREES N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTLINE. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ARE
AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS ALONG AND UP TO FIVE TO SIX DEGREES SE OF
THE JET AXIS. FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SE
GULF. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO 24.5N90W TO 18N95W AND THEN TURNS
NW OVER MEXICO NEAR 22N101W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER
THE SW GULF WEST OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER JAMAICA
AND APPROACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DISCUSSED IN THE ABOVE TWO
SECTIONS ALSO COVERS A VAST AREA OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF ABOUT
45W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO.
STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT ARE LOCATED NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 45W
WITH SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 100 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N60W TO 32N78W AND THEN TURNS SW
THROUGH TAMPA FLORIDA. A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
24N57W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 27N73W. MOST OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC IS COVERED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO 08N40W. A
STRONG JET IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR
06N40W TO 09N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 20N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB







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