[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030457
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA AT
5N9W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG
6N24W 3N40W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL AT EQ48W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N90W 22N94W 18N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN
AND SHOWERS W OF 88W AND NW OF FRONT. 25-30 KT N WINDS ARE NW OF
FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. 10 KT SE-S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF NW OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR
18N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N73W TO N FLORIDA AT
30N81W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N36W TO 27N40W TO 23N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
15N E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS...WHILE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT DISSIPATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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