[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 02 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF LIBERIA AT 4N8W TO 4N12W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N12W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 4N24W 2N33W EQ43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 21W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W
ALONG 25N93W 23N94W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO MEXICO AT
18N93W...AS OF 2100 UTC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTEND WEST OF THE
FRONT INTO EASTERN MEXICO AND THE GULF COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 20 KT ARE ALSO WEST OF THE FRONT. THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLC ACROSS THIS AREA. ALOFT...MAINLY SW
FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND WEST ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE BASIN. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT LEAVING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE ONLY THE NORTHERN PORTION
CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE HAS CHANGED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. FAIR CONDITIONS SPREAD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT
DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE REACHING 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N66W...AND A WEAK 1019
MB HIGH NEAR 26N47W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST ATLC. TO THE EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N37W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 25N44W 21N54W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
TO 20N69W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
EITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE FRONT AND SHEAR AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE EAST ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1035 MB
HIGH NEAR 44N5W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALONG 12W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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