[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W CONTINUING TO 3N15W WHERE THE
ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W 2N29W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W
THEN INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-12W AND WITHIN
45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N14W TO 4N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 30/45 NM
OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 2N14W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
19W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER W OHIO AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT AT 28/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM A 1014 MB LOW
OVER S ALABAMA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA
CONTINUING ALONG 27N91W 25N95W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE AND
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THIS FRONT. STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
REACH THE FAR SE GULF BY THIS EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GIVING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL PANAMA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL GET REINFORCED BY STRONGER COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI AND WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. FRONT WILL
REACH FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N
WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER PORTION OF SW
CARIBBEAN SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N71W THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N62W. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 28/0900 UTC ENTERS INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N66W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
THE FRONT TO 62W AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 45W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
FROM 20N50W TO 17N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN
90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-40W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W AND EXTENDS ALONG
25N36W TO 22N43W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 28N22W TO THE
COAST OF WESTERN SARAH NEAR 25N15W. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF
THE W ATLC FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA
LATE TODAY THEN FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLC
EARLY SAT AND MERGE WITH STATIONARY FRONT SUN. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE W TO NW WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN SUN INTO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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