[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 28 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING TO 3N14W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W 1N28W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
E OF 20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER NW OHIO AND SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT AT 28/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR
CAILLOU BAY CONTINUING ALONG 26N96W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N80W ALONG 23N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE AND WITHIN 150 NM
W OF THE FRONT. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS IS A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N88W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THU
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND
REACH THE FAR SE GULF BY THU EVENING AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
IS GIVING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SCATTERED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL PANAMA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL BE
REINFORCED BY THE STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THU AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. FRONT WILL REACH
FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS
POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN.
TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N71W THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 28/0300 UTC INTO
THE REGION NEAR 32N69W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE IS E OF THE FRONT TO 50W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
27N57W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 20N51W
TO 15N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120/150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 27W-43W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N39W TO
22N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
29N23W TO 26N18W. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE W ATLC FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA THU AFTERNOON THEN
FROM 32N57W TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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