[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 02N16W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN
13W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN
31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE SE GULF ALONG
25N81W TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF
26N E OF 86W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF
86W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N94W. THE HIGH
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS...ENTERS THE NW GULF LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDES
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EVIDENT
FROM 08N-21N. AT THE SURFACE...LITTLE MOISTURE IS NOTED...
HOWEVER AREAS OF SCATTERED CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITHIN TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT. THE HIGHEST OF THESE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-79W...AND WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE MOSTLY CONFINED N OF 21N IN THE CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
WHEN THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
GRADUALLY PICK UP SUSTAINED MOVEMENT AS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD BY
THE WEEKEND. BY LATE FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
ARRIVED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA KEYS
NEAR 25N81W. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC N OF 27N W OF 60W...WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.
FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH ATLC NEAR 45N44W THAT SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N35W TO 27N40W TO 22N54W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT E OF 40W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF
40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
17N53W TO 20N49W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N30W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO
THE RIDGING IS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
W-NW TO 30N25W TO NEAR THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 13W-28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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