[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE CONTINUING TO
5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN
INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO
2N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE IVORY
COAST BETWEEN 4W-7W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST AND
COUPLED WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE
GULF OF MEXICO SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI THEN ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N83W
WHERE TI BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT.
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N91W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.
THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS GULF REACHING E GULF THU AND SE OF THE GULF THU
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W
CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO INLAND
OVER S BELIZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THU
AS IT MOVES ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE MERGED FRONT REACH FROM
E CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT FOLLOWED BY STRONG N WINDS. TRADE
WIND CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WED AND WITH THE TRADE WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N68W. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 27/0900
UTC THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS E OF THE
FRONT TO 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER NEAR 32N61W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 33W-48W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 26N44W TO 25N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28N. A REMNANT 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR
29N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N26W THROUGH THE
LOW THEN E OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER MOROCCO NEAR
28N13W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM BERMUDA
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO W CUBA EARLY THU AND FROM
32N58W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS W ATLC LATE SAT AND MERGE WITH STATIONARY FRONT SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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