[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 15W-35W...AND
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO
06N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S-SW OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS THAT
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N86W TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. THE
FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS FROM
29N90W TO 26N95W TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N96W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT
AS A RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
AXIS ALONG 24N. THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT N OF 26N MOVES ACROSS THE NE
GULF...THEN STALLS BY EARLY SUNDAY TURNING STATIONARY BRIEFLY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND
WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER
THE NW GULF WATERS ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR 18N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGING WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER. EASTERLY
TRADES PERSIST UNDER THIS ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IN THE RANGE OF 15
TO 25 KT...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST
WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE SNYOPTICALLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 74W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 18N W OF 58W WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CORNER AS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM
32N80W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 31N W OF 72W. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED STORM FORCE 969 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N45W THAT EXTENDS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N39W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG
28N42W TO 23N50W TO 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND
WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
LOCATED ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT S OF 31N AS NOTED IN THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN ATLC BY EARLY
SUNDAY. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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