[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231135
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ACROSS GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 5N18W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W INTO
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 17W-42W AND
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 42W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF SW
FLOW ALOFT. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE NW
GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER MOBILE ALABAMA ACROSS FAR
SE LOUISIANA ALONG 27N94W TO OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT FROM OVER SE LOUISIANA TO OVER S
MISSISSIPPI AND S ALABAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF
WATERS. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE LATE
TODAY THEN REACH AND STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF
CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N AS
WARM FRONT SUN. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY MON
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF OF THE FRONT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF
AREA TUE NIGHT. THIRD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW WATERS WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE W ATLC DOMINATING THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS
ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 76W-81W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TRADE WIND
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MON. MAINLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH
WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 17N45W AND SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N49W TO 23N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
FRONT E OF 48W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24W FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT REACHING FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUN. REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO WARM FRONT AND LIFT N BY MON AHEAD OF SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVING OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TUE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
FROM 32N67W TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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