[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1125 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC THROUGH LIBERIA AND EXTENDING TO 04N11W 2N19W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO EQ24W 1S33W TO 2S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 1N-6N
BETWEEN 7W AND 21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 190 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH LOCATED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 32N71W. RETURN FLOW IN THE
RANGE 10-15 KT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE NE
GULF THAT HAS WIND SPEED UP TO 25 KT. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS DRY AIR WHICH IS
SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR N OF 27N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE N OF 27N WEST OF 84W
AND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
BY SOUTHERN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE COLD FR0NT EXTENDS FROM
29N91W AND THEN SW TO 27N95W 27N97W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. RADAR
IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SE LOUISIANA...S MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS
EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 90 NM OFF THE COASTLINES BETWEEN 86W AND
96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND WILL EXIT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NE REGIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT DOMINATE THE WEST...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. IN THE SOUTHERN REGION AND ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE
DOMINATE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY KEEP SHOWING VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTS THE REGION INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
ACTUAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 26N55W AND 24N61W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
DYING FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO 22N75W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FOUND BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND A
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG IT. E OF THE FRONT...A 1027 MB DISSIPATING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N38W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. OVER THE
COURSE OF 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
WILL STALL WHILE WEAKENS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR









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