[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC THROUGH SIERRA LEONE AND EXTENDING TO 04N15W 2N20W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W TO EQ27W EQ37W TO 2S42W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W AND FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 4W AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 28W
AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH LOCATED IN THE WEST ATLC NEAR 32N75W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20
KT W OF 91W NORTH OF 23N. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES IN THE
UPPER LEVEL AS WELL AS DRY AIR WHICH IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL GULF COASTLINE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE N OF 26N
BETWEEN 86W AND 95W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT EXTENDS
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM OFF THE COASTLINES. WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NE REGIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM 19N73W TO
18N76W 18N78W 16N80W 15N83W. EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN REGION ALONG THE
COLOMBIA COAST THAT HAS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED TO THE SHEARLINE AND CLOUD BANKING ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEARLINE VANISHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N52W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 26N57W AND THEN TO 23N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
20N73W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOUND BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 50W. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS
NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. E OF THE
FRONT...A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N38W EXTENDS A RIDGE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS WHILE THE COLD
FRONT WEAKENS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR







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