[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W TO
5N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
5N19W 1N26W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO 1S43W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO 1S BETWEEN 24W AND
31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG 28N94W 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ENTERS THE GULF
WATERS BY TUXPAN TO 20N96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER LAND.
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONGER SHOWERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TRACK CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF. DRY AIR
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF
THE FRONT THUS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. RETURN
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SPREAD OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OF WEST
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT HAS BEEN REPORTED.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...EXPECT SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON. TRADEWINDS WIND SPEED RANGE IS 15-20 KT WITH A MAXIMA
OF 25 KT ALONG COASTAL COLOMBIA. THERE ARE FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUD
PATCHES FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS OVER PUERTO
RICO ASSOCIATED TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
OVER LA HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE.
TRADEWINDS AND SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPREAD OVER THE WEST ATLC ASSOCIATED TO A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS OFF THE EASTERN CONUS COVERS THIS REGION OF THE ATLC.
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO
THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MOISTURE
COULD BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N WEST OF 70W. OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
30N47W AND EXTENDS SW TO 22N55W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO
19N61W THEN NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W TO NORTH OF LA
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
25N AND 190 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SCATTERED AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEAR LINE. ALSO IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N47W 18N49W
TO 13N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF
THE TROUGH. BOTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH ARE BEING
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N49W AND EXTENDS SW TO 19N62W. OVER THE
EAST ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 21N EAST OF 43W. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED
OVER THE SPECIFIED REGION. OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23N17W 18N17W TO 14N16W. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL ALONG THE TROUGH. WITHIN 24 HOURS...A
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
MOVE OVER THE W ATLC AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC STEADILY WEAKENS WHILE
CONTINUING ITS EASTWARD TRACK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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