[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
3N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
3N22W TO 0N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 25W-31W.
ISOLATED  MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO S
TEXAS ALONG 29N93W 26N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT HAS 15-20 KT SW SURFACE
FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO
EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO N OF 19N W OF 63W. MORE
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA MOVING SW...AND N OF
COLOMBIA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 71W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MN HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR
37N69W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO
25N53W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 46W-49W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
37N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N44W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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