[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
02N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 22W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER A MAJORITY OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 92W IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL
STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA DOMINATES WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AS
OF 10/2100 UTC IS ANALYZED FROM THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER
NEAR 30N94W INTO THE FAR NW GULF WATERS TO CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR
27N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
WINDS OVER THE NW GULF EAST OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 36
HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...TRADES WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN ABOVE 20
KT GENERALLY E OF 80W THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
LOOKING AHEAD...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC FROM 22N64W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N E OF 78W THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 64W-74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES NEAR 45N57W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO
26N BETWEEN 50W-66W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N52W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG
23N60W TO 22N64W WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD
FRONT W OF 58W AND THE SHEAR LINE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE SHEAR
LINE LINGERING AND PROVIDING FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION NE OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL AZORES NEAR 38N28W. THE STRONG RIDGING IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FROM 15N-30N
BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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