[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Feb 10 11:33:24 CST 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 101733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND EXITS THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N18W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W AND 30W TO
2S43W. CLUSTERS 0F STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN
21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW SPREADS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND A 1032 MB
HIGH NEAR 46N74W. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEED IS IN THE RANGE OF
15-20 KT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES
SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT IS AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
AND ENTERS THE GULF BY THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W TO
29N87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 24N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN CONUS AND DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. IN 24 HOURS
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE NW GULF AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. RETURN FLOW OF 15 KT WILL
DOMINATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS STRENGTHENING GIVING
THE NW CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA THERE IS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE. ELSEWHERE
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER AN INCREASE OF WIND
SPEED UP TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 30N55W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N58W TO 24N62W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 22N68W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 30N57W ALONG 26N62W TO
24N68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT. A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM E
OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE N AZORES
ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 19N E OF 51W.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL DISPLACE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ATLC WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKENS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR





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