[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N23W
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 20W-28W. CLUSTERS 0F SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO OVER THE E CONUS NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE
ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W AND IS
ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W
OF 89W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND
SUN ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS TO EXPAND
E AND INCREASE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
SUN EVENING THEN STALL OVER NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE. A LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TUE
INTO WED. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS DRAGGING THE
FRONT SE ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING THEN
STALL OVER THE SE GULF BY THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS FINALLY RELAXED GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS N CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT
THROUGH TUE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG
26N65W TO 24N71W. A RE-ENFORCING SURGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 32N62W ALONG 28N69W TO 28N75W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER THE AREA W OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH
OVER W PENNSYLVANIA. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 20N60W TO 30N52W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF A LINE FROM
22N58W TO BEYOND 32N53W TO THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. WEAK BENIGN
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF
55W AND ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR THE N AZORES ISLANDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 32N55W ALONG
23N65W TO 21N75W SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE SUN INTO
MON. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES E MON AND TUE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TUE AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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