[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N18W TO 02N24W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 19W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DOMINATES WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED CLOUDINESS REMAINS
N OF 23N W OF 85W AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND STALLING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 28N/29N INTO TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY RELAXED AND THUS E-NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
EASTERN CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 65W-80W AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONCE AGAIN
STRENGTHEN. OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST NEAR 42N66W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWARD TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W-74W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG
27N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 69W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES A WEAKER SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N64W TO 30N70W TO 29N77W. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
CENTERED W-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W. THE STRONG RIDGING IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE FROM 12N-26N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 45W...AND ALSO
WITHIN 420 NM NW OF THE AFRICAN COAST N OF 26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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