[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 4N13W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W
3N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 25W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO OVER THE NW ATLC AND S OVER THE NE GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS AT 09/0300 UTC ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 25N85W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY 1031 MB HIGH OVER MICHIGAN. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 19N93W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SAT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT PUSHING THE FRONT SE ACROSS THE GULF.
A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SOME
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 58W-64W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN
INCREASE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE ATLC PASSAGES
SUN INTO MON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS THE W ATLC.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A 976 MB STORM CENTER AT 09/0300 UTC ABOUT 200 NM E
OF NEW YORK CITY WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N68W ALONG 26N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND S
FLORIDA S OF MIAMI DISSIPATING AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT E OF 74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. WEAK BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND ANCHORED BY A 1033
MB HIGH ENE OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
32N62W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING THEN STALL AND
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD MON AND TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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