[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO
4N12W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N21W 3N35W
EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-37W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 32W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PAIR OF DISSIPATING COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FIRST IS THE ONE THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE BASIN
YESTERDAY AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE FLORID NEAR 26N80W TO
24N89W. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS.
THE SECOND FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 27N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN
THE SW GULF FROM 23N96W TO 19N93W. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ON THE TROUGH AXIS HAS NOW DISSIPATED. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA ALONG WITH
MODERATELY DRY AIR...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN THE TWO DISSIPATING FRONTS. THE FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH PORTIONS TO THE NORTH CONTINUING
EASTWARD. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF COLOMBIA. CLEAR SKIES SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING TRADEWIND
FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NE CONUS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W TO 26N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE
AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W ATLC
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE FAR
EASTERN ATLC WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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