[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE GUINEA BISSAU COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
11N15W AND CONTINUES INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 7N21W. THE ITCZ
COMMENCES NEAR 6N22W AND EXTENDS ALONG 3N30W 2N35W ACROSS THE
EQUATOR NEAR 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W
AND 16W. FARTHER WEST A REGION OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER NE TEXAS WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
INTO THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR 28N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N94W TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. ALSO A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW TO 28N91W 29N89W. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A LOT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
AND TO EAST OF THE LOW ALL THE WAY TO 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS
OF THE W ATLC. THIS IS SUPPLYING THE GULF MAINLY WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT. BESIDES FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOTED IN THE REST OF THE GULF. RETURN FLOW MAINLY
IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ALSO SPREADS OVER THE GULF. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NE GULF AND IN 24 HOURS WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONE
AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 62W-68W. TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY 10-15 KT FLOW
ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN
60W-80W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 30N66W TO 28N68W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF
THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N66W 25N69W TO 23N72W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
26N-30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W BEING ASSISTED BY UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SECOND REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 29N47W TO
25N50W 22N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ALONG
THIS TROUGH N OF 25N. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 27N23W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 6N45W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE
POSSIBLE N OF 17N BETWEEN 18W AND 28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR






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