[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 7N22W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W
ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER E TEXAS WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN SE OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING INTO THE NW GULF OFF THE COAST
OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. A 1006 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
NW GULF AT 06/2100 UTC NEAR 28N96W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO 29N93W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 93W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 26N W OF
91W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A VERY LARGE
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC S OF 30N. THIS
IS GIVING THE GULF MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS FROM OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W
TO 27N85W. OTHERWISE...THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO
RETREAT NE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT E-NE ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE NE OVER THE SE CONUS THU NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND BECOME E TO W ALIGNED ALONG 26N BY SAT
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN
EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONE
AREA OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-67W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC S
OF 30N W OF 50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N
BETWEEN 55W-80W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W AT 06/2100 UTC TO 30N73W. THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE COLD FRONT. THE W ATLC RIDGE
IS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER OHIO AND THE E ATLC RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH IS SE OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N66W
ALONG 25N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N76W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
SECOND REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 30N45W TO 23N52W. A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 26N25W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
11N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 28W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH
FRI. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF
THE RIDGE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST FRI MORNING REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S
FLORIDA SAT MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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