[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 22W-33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA
NEAR 33N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 19N88W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT
EXCEPT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF...AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 81W-86W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING NW. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS
WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF E OF 95W. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA
...HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COLD FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N64W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N47W TO 24N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT N OF
27N. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
36N15W PRODUCING 20-30 KT NE WINDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 40W-50W PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N37W
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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