[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 29N BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT EXCEPT ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
E OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF...CENTRAL FLORIDA ...AND W CUBA
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 81W-87W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING NW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH AXIS ALONG
97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING CONVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVERS THE GULF E OF 95W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA
...HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COLD FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N65W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N54W TO 28N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N47W TO 22N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N19W
PRODUCING 30 KT NE WINDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 40W-50W PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 30N39W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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