[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 6N11W TO
6N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
6N14W TO 4N30W TO 2N42W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 23N96W TO AN EMBEDDED 1014 MB LOW AT 20N94W TO 19N92W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 91W-93W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N83W
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N86W DEPICTED BY A WINDSHIFT. THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N HAS 10-20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF
WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO SLIGHTLY DEEPEN AND TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W OVER HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 6N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DISSIPATE HOWEVER SHOWERS ARE TO
PERSIST. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT A FEW MORE SHOWERS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFCE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO
27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A
1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N29W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
19N18W PRODUCING SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net