[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH
COASTAL LIBERIA ALONG 6N11W TO 4N15W 4N27W 3N29W AND 3N45W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 5N33W 13N39W 16N52W 22N57W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF
30W. HIGH CLOUDS CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY IN THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN
MEXICO ALONG 105W/106W. ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO
ALONG 15N99W 7N102W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE ALSO SPANS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR
28N100W...TO 22N99W AND 19N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
MEXICO...INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS AND CENTRAL PANAMA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N83W
25N85W 23N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
THE NORTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N96W
20N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE WEST OF 90W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...
KVBS FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IT IS RAINING
AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE MORE INLAND/COMPARATIVELY MORE TO THE
WEST IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM A PORT LAVACA-TO-PALACIOS LINE
SOUTHWARD. HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT AND THE HOUSTON
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT ARE REPORTING HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.
SUGARLAND IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND IN THE
LAFAYETTE AREA OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AND THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN...MOBILE IN ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN PENSACOLA...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING
FIELD...IN VALPARAISO...AND IN PANAMA CITY. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER FLORIDA FROM APALACHICOLA TO MARIANNA TO TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING COVERS THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA AND NAPLES. A
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N94W TO 25N97W. NORTHWEST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
22N TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 270 NM TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH.

FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
VENEZUELA TO 26N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N69W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...15N70W. HIGH CLOUDS
THAT ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
20N66W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 5N33W 13N39W 16N52W 22N57W UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND
80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.15 IN
TRINIDAD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED TO FEW
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...WITH RAINSHOWERS.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA...BEING TO THE WEST OF AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
12 HOURS...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER THE FIRST 12
HOURS...WITH A DIFFERENT AND SEPARATE TROUGH. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH
HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH.
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW AFTER 30 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 80W...IN LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 5N78W AND
4N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS SOLELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 36 HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N57W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N57W TO 27N65W
27N73W...ACROSS ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO
SOUTHERNMOST TIP OF FLORIDA/THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AREA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W
26N70W 24N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.03 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR TOTAL FOR THE TIME
PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 0.10 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N19W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 30W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W.

A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N27W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 53W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST
OF THE LINE FROM 31N43W TO 12N61W TO 06N51W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N57W 27N65W 25N81W. WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE
FROM 31N67W TO 31N59W TO 24N74W TO 30N73W TO 31N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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